A pity. That's what it is. It's an outright pity that it remains illegal for we, the people, to saunter down to our local bookmaker and put down a tenner, or so, on a favourite sporting event. I feel compelled to embark on an essay linking this injustice to well-tanned Mafioso lobbyists, government-sanctioned numbers rackets, and the continued devaluation of the Honduran lempira, but I have chosen to eschew such compulsions, close my eyes, and imagine myself a Nevadan.
Raiders (+4) at Chiefs
I pose to you, dear reader, this: how best to describe this alleged contest? The unmoving force meets the nonexistent object? The battle for Eugene Monroe? Amazingly, this one is trending, albeit only slightly, back towards the Chiefs. Perhaps the wiseguys have chosen to ignore that Lane Kiffin is clearly trying to get fired. Or, and this is the more likely scenario, the smart money knows that no one, BUT NO ONE, can match Herm Edwards for in-game ineptitude. Given the complete collapse of Oakland's once-staunch defense, which I attribute to Rob Ryan's Samson-like shearing of his once-illustrious locks, and the mercy killing of Brody Croyle, I'm comfortable bucking this tiniest of trends. Gimme the Chefs! Oh, and lest ye forget: Thank you, Bernard Pollard, for killing my fantasy team.
Titans (pk) at Bengals
I can only imagine Vince Young's latest foray into the realm of childish petulance influenced this line. Young's latest tomfoolery has surprised everyone but.......well......no one. Even fat, fatuous, fabulator Jason Whitlock called this one. (A quick note on Whitlock: Despite vacillating wildly between prescience, silly egocentric satire, and hamfisted, if not heartfelt, social commentary, I usually consider him one of the good guys. That is, until, I see or hear him on TV or radio and remember what a self-serving windbag he can be.) I'd sit on this one as long as I can, my paduwan learner, for the more the odds makers let this one fester, the more they'll hope that Kerry Collins, he of the drinking and the driving, will scare the proles into taking the Bengals. This logic dictates that we should ignore two important ratios:
1) 7 : 19. The former representing the number of touchdowns Young threw last year, with the latter being interceptions.
2) 2 : 4. The former being the number of DUIs perpetrated by the Titans (Jevon Kearse says hello.), with the latter being the number of DUIs perpetrated by the Bengals (Chris Henry says hello. Twice.).
As you can see, the numbers all point to the Titans not being in as much trouble as one might think. Let CincinAttica trend up some more, and then jump on the Titans like Vince Young on a chicken wing. Oh, and GO TITS! Ahem.
Colts (-1) at Vikings
Well, then. What are we to do here? We have two teams that underachieved significantly in their first game, yet clearly remain divisional favourites. In Indianapolis, we saw line play doom the once-unstoppable-in-Week-1 Colts, which we can only hope ushers in the Kyle Orton Era of Bacchanalian Beatdowns. In Green Bay, Tarvarnidicus Jackson and some poor execution and penalties on defense led to Aaron Rodgers' Proboscis leading the Pack to victory. Predictably enough, it's going to come down to line and QB play again this week, with the Williams Twins forcing a lot of passing, which, unfortunately for the Vikings plays right into Peyton Manning's hands. However, if Peyton continues the check down parade he started last week, even Tarvacorvenious Jackson may be able to steal the win. Also, Colts DT Ed Johnson has been cut for off-field transgressions (presumably, the Bengals will pick him up shortly), which only hampers the sieve that is the Colts' line further. I would begrudgingly take the Colts here, as the Vikings secondary is equally sieve-like, allowing Rodgers to sniff around the record for completion percentage in a QB's first start. I think the smart money will push the line in Indy's favor, so get this one early, if you don't decide to just stay away completely.
Saints (pk) at Redskins
Jim Zorn's hair is impeccable. Jim Zorn's play calling is not. Some see this as a trap game. Your humble narrator does not. Unless we have witnessed one of the great first game hiccups in the history of the NFL, I wouldn't count on the Redskins doing much here. Sure, there's plenty of talent on defense, but when you have Jason Campbell taking seven step drops and holding the ball for what seems like ten seconds per drop back, you're not beating anybody.
Packers (-3) at Lions
Although I think the claim is just as dubious as it is for the New Orleans/Washington game, I can see why certain citizens are crying "trap game" once again. Minnesota certainly took an inordinate number of red zone penalties to allow Green Bay to get ahead and Atlanta certainly rattled off an inordinate number of big plays to get such a huge lead. I think Detroit's late points and the Pack's Favre-lessness are scaring people more than they ought. Stay with the Bay.
Bears (+3) at Panthers
Last week's upset specials square off in a game of "which QB will hurt his team the least." I think the Panthers' defense should rebound this year significantly, and I like their running tandem a lot more than I like anything the Bears have going on. I rode the Panthers last week and I won't let the fact that they start a well-known actress at tight end change my mind. As much as I want Kyle Orton's Rumspringa to blissfully continue, I like Carolina, so long as the line stays where it is.
Giants (-9) at Rams
Another game seemingly fashioned to make Eli Manning look like an elite quarterback? As much as it pains me to bet against a homedog that's nearing double digits, if pressed, I'd have to take New York. The Rams are in free fall and haven't come within nine points of any team since their victory against Emmitt Thomas' Falcons in Week 13. Have mercy. My only fear is Eli sputtering in the red zone and not getting the requisite points.
Bills (+6) at Jaguars
I loathe this game. I hate it with the intensity one usually reserves for papercuts, traffic jams, xmas music, and Tom Brady. We all know that Jacksonville is more than capable of bouncing back from a tough game, but it certainly makes it difficult when you've lost both your starting guards and your most productive Week One receiver knows what a "nummy" tastes like. Buffalo may or may not be competitive, as we'll never know if Mike Holmgren truly cannot see past the fat of his jowls, or if Marv Levy's Special Teams Tasker Force still lives on. Any team that relies that heavily on Roscoe Parrish and Special Teams ingenuity and can transfer that into weekly success deserves kudos, but that remains to be seen. With the line shrinking the way it has been, I'll be taking the Jags.
I've indulged myself enough this morning. I'll try to find the time to serve up a second portion of this week's lines before the games begin. If the weekend gets away from me, fret not, for even in my entirely-legal-no-money-changed-hands-good-time-had-by-all-office-pool, I barely made over the vig.
Auf Wiedersehen, degenerate gamblers.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
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